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| Components of the Oil and Gas
Resource Base |
The flow-chart (below) gives an overview of how the estimates
of natural gas resources are broken down, and provides
a description of each category. It is important to remember
that the broadest categories are also the least precise.
As one moves towards the categories at the bottom of the
chart, the associated estimates of the amount of natural
gas in those categories becomes more and more precise.
Below is a description of the various categories outlined
in the chart above. It is important to remember, however,
that there are a number of different ways of classifying
reserves. This information is based on the Energy
Information Administration's classification system.
Conventional and Unconventional Natural Gas
So far, we have been discussing natural gas that may
exist in the earth, trapped in a reservoir. 'Unconventional'
natural gas does not exist in these conventional reservoirs
- rather, this natural gas takes another form, or is
present in a peculiar formation that makes its extraction
quite different from conventional resources. Unconventional
natural gas, despite existing in non-traditional forms,
is usually included in estimations of the amount of
natural gas available for use. For more information
on the differences between conventional and unconventional
resources, click here.
The Natural Gas Resource Base
The broadest classification of natural gas estimates
is generally termed the natural gas resource base. According
to the EIA,
the total natural gas resource base includes the entire
volume of natural gas contained and trapped in the earth,
before any is extracted and produced. Essentially, the
total resource base includes estimations of ALL of the
natural gas that is, or was (before production), trapped
in the earth. Most of this natural gas is in forms that
are technically non-recoverable. For instance, there
is a great deal of natural gas located in very low concentrations
throughout the earth's crust. The technology does not
exist, nor is it expected to come about in the near
future, to effectively extract this gas. The remainder
of the total resource base is natural gas that is obtainable
using current or foreseeable technology. It is this
portion of the resource base that is of most interest,
and is included in estimates of the amount of natural
gas.
Discovered and Undiscovered Technically Recoverable
Resources
Recoverable resources are the subset of the total resource
base that is thought to be technically recoverable;
the technology exists to make its extraction possible.
This subset is further divided into discovered and undiscovered
resources. Discovered recoverable resources are those
in a known location. That is, those reservoirs that
geologists have actually located through exploration.
Discovered recoverable resources include current production,
all past production, as well as the gas that is remaining
to be produced (known as 'reserves'). For more information
on how geologists locate natural gas, click here.
Undiscovered resources are those deposits that have
not been pinpointed, but are generally expected to exist
based on geologic conditions. Geologists know, or at
least have a good idea, that these natural gas reservoirs
exist, although they are not able to pinpoint a specific
location for a reservoir. In the U.S., the Department
of the Interior (DOI) and the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS) are responsible for estimating
how much undiscovered recoverable natural gas there
is in onshore areas and State governed offshore areas
of the United States. Conversely, the Minerals
Management Service (MMS), an agency with the Department
of Interior, is responsible for estimating the undiscovered
natural gas in Federal offshore areas. Each of these
departments uses slightly different definitions, and
terminology, when measuring and referring to undiscovered
resources. However, as a general estimate, most agree
that there is at least as much technically recoverable
natural gas remaining to be found in the earth than
has already been located to date.
Economically Recoverable Resources
Economically recoverable resources are those natural
gas resources for which there are economic incentives
for production; that is, the cost of extracting those
resources is low enough to allow natural gas companies
to generate an adequate financial return given current
market conditions. However, it is important to note
that economically unrecoverable resources may, at some
time in the future, become recoverable, as soon as the
technology to produce them becomes less expensive, or
the characteristics of the natural gas market are such
that companies can ensure a fair return on their investment
by extracting this gas.
Those resources that have been discovered, and for
which a specific reservoir location is known, can further
be broken down into those resources that are economically
recoverable, and those that are economically unrecoverable.
This differs from technically unrecoverable resources,
in that the technology exists (or is foreseeable in
the near future) to get economically unrecoverable resources
from the ground, but the economics do not exist to make
the production of this natural gas profitable. For more
information on the economics of exploration and production,
click here.
Reserves
Those discovered, technically and economically recoverable
resources are further broken down into different types
of 'reserves'. Organizations measure reserves for their
own use and for outside publication, often using different
measuring and estimation techniques for the different
types of reserves. However, in general, reserves can
be broken down into two main categories - proved reserves,
and other reserves.
Proved Reserves
Proved reserves are those reserves that geological
and engineering data indicate with reasonable certainty
to be recoverable today, or in the near future, with
current technology and under current economic conditions.
According to the Energy
Information Administration (EIA), the statistics
arm of the Department
of Energy, 'reasonable certainty' implies that there
is a 90 percent probability that the natural gas actually
recovered from those reserves will exceed the amount
that is estimated beforehand to be recoverable.
The EIA further divides proved reserves into non-producing
and producing reserves. Producing proved reserves are
those reservoirs that are currently being produced,
that is, natural gas is currently being extracted. These
are probably the most certain of the estimates, as characteristics
of the reserves become more apparent once a well is
actually drilled, and natural gas is extracted. Proved
non-producing reserves are further broken down into
proved undeveloped reserves, and proved developed non-producing
reserves. Of these two categories, proved developed
non-producing reserves are more accurate. This means
that pre-production work has been done on the reservoir
and a well may have been drilled to prepare for natural
gas extraction, but as of yet no natural gas has been
produced. Proved undeveloped reserves are those where
no well has been drilled, but for which there is still
relative certainty surrounding the amount of natural
gas they contain.
Other Reserves
Other reserves are those that are less well known than
proved reserves. This classification goes by many names,
depending on who is asked. They may be called probable
reserves, possible reserves, indicated reserves, or
inferred reserves, to name just a few. Because the quantity
and characteristics of these reserves are less well
known, the extraction of this natural gas is not completely
assured, although there is a relatively high probability
that they will be recoverable.
Proved reserves can be found as the 'on the books'
reserves in operational and financial data of natural
gas exploration and production companies, carrying with
them economic implications for the company. These companies
have economic incentives to not overstate these 'on
the books' estimations of their reserves as this classification
carries with it a high degree of certainty. In order
to not overstate the actual amount of natural gas (and
suffer the potential financial side effects of such
an overstatement or miscalculation), many companies
list a high percentage of their reserves as unproven.
It follows then that most of the natural gas that exists
in the United States does not fall under the proven
reserves classification. It may be misleading, then,
to look only at levels of proved reserves as an indication
of how much natural gas there really is. Instead, the
entire supply picture should be examined, including
conventional and unconventional natural gas, discovered
and undiscovered, and economically recoverable or unrecoverable.
For more information regarding the classification and
measurement of the natural gas resource base, please
visit the EIA' site here.
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